This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. 95% of content is free, but for the remaining 5% you can subscribe here. Also:

1: Happy New Year!

2: I’m too swamped to run my own forecasting tournament this year, so Metaculus is taking over. If you want to participate, check this link. I will be grading last year’s tournament and posting results hopefully sometime this month.